时变Copula模型的非参数推断

运用Copula模型研究金融变量之间的相关结构,是近年来金融分析中的一个热点,如何估计Copula模型中的时变参数则是一个重点和难点问题。本文从非参数建模思想为切入点,提出经验分布函数—局部极大似然法(ECDF-LML)估计Copula函数中的时变参数,研究了Copula模型参数是否时变的统计假设检验问题。最后通过大量随机模拟研究验证了本文所提出的方法较DCC-MGARCH方法在刻画随机变量动态相关性方面更具优越性且很稳健。     

期货市场量价分析法的短期预测力检验——基于久期理论的分析

久期作为重要的市场微观结构信号,对于改善资产价格波动预测准确性和流动性风险评价具有重要的作用。本文首先提出了反映价格、成交量和持仓量共同变化的共同久期概念,并分析了不同变量高频数据所具有的日内效应特征。然后,在久期理论框架下构建了扩展的二元选择模型,对上海燃料油期货市场量价分析法的短期预测力进行了实证检验。结果表明,期货市场量价分析法中一半以上的经验法则证明是有效的,说明量价分析法在短期价格预测中具有较高的预测力,是值得信赖的重要技术分析方法之一。     

When a few minutes sound like a lifetime: Does atmospheric music expand or contract perceived time?

In the first of two experiments, the estimated duration of a given interval was shorter when familiar as opposed to unfamiliar music was played, but only for respondents waiting idly; music had little or no effect on respondents engaged in a memory task during the interval. In the second experiment, respondents waiting idly again reported shorter estimates of duration when they heard familiar as opposed to unfamiliar music, but only when they heard a sufficient number of songs during the interval. On the other hand, respondents engaged in a memory task reported longer estimates of duration when they heard familiar as opposed to unfamiliar music, but again only when they heard a sufficient number of songs. These results are consistent with attentional (i.e., waiting condition) versus discrete events (i.e., memory task condition) models of duration judgments, respectively.     

路径依赖、锁定效应与产业集群发展的风险——以美国底特律汽车产业集群为例

基于自然资源禀赋驱动、传统企业带动所形成的产业集群不仅有着明显的路径依赖特性,而且其结构及功能较为单一。正是这种路径依赖和较为单一的产业结构容易形成锁定效应。这种锁定效应使得产业集群面临结构性风险、网络型风险及外源性周期性风险。美国底特律汽车产业集群因路径依赖引起锁定效应,使其产业集群难以转型升级,缺乏创新、路径单一、成本过高、结构僵化,最终导致底特律的破产。     

Lock-in situations in supply chains: A social exchange theoretic study of sourcing arrangements in buyer–supplier relationships

Social exchange theory is used to gain a better understanding of the relationship between a buyer and a supplier that is characterized by lock-in situations. We begin by reviewing the theoretical foundations of social exchange theory. Next, we use an illustrative multinational business example from a Danish Business Group to demonstrate the complexities of the lock-in situation. Conjectures related to lock-in behaviors are initially developed and then examined by means of a game-theoretic model. The analysis provides a basis for the development of propositions which are examined employing a behavioral experiment. The results indicate that the optimal pricing strategy of the supplier is to lower the price with increasing demand and the optimal investment intensity of the buyer decreases with increasing demand. The paper concludes by presenting directions for future research.     

新加坡中央公积金制度变迁因素分析

新加坡中央公积金制度属于强制积累型的社会保障制度。中央公积金制度的变迁是新加坡经济、政治、文化和社会因素综合作用的结果。新加坡中央公积金制度变迁的经验表明社会保障制度安排必须要与本国的国情相适应,要重视家庭在社会保障中的作用,要兼顾一些其他目标。     

基于持续期数据的我国住房抵押贷款违约和提前还款风险分析

本文利用我国住房抵押贷款持续期数据,估计了住房抵押贷款在整个持续期内的提前还款风险和违约风险的概率,同时研究了各影响因素对住房抵押贷款这两类风险的影响方向。目前在国内文献中尚未见诸有关住房抵押持续期的实证研究,本文的研究能够反映抵押贷款风险的内在时间效应,这是其它统计分析方法无法做到的。本文进一步指出它们在银行的抵押贷款证券化和信贷风险管理中的应用前景。     

中国银行业系统性风险监测研究——基于SCCA技术的实现与优化

金融危机以来,随着国际金融监管组织、各国监管当局和学术界加强系统性风险监测技术的开发和应用,新方法、新技术不断涌现,SCCA是其中具有代表性的方法之一。本文结合我国银行业实际情况,设计了针对SCCA技术关键环节的优化算法,并采用非参数统计方法估计时变相依函数,提出了新的系统性风险监测指标J-VaR。在此基础上,本文动态监测了后危机时代我国银行业系统性风险的演变过程。研究表明,优化后的SCCA技术具有较好的适用性,时变风险相依结构对系统性风险理论和实证研究至关重要。     

Partial unemployment insurance benefits and the transition rate to regular work

In Finland, unemployed workers who are looking for a full-time job but take up a part-time or very short full-time job may qualify for partial unemployment benefits. In exchange for partial benefits, these applicants must continue their search of regular full-time work. This study analyzes the implications of working on partial benefits for subsequent transitions to regular employment. The timing-of-events approach is applied to distinguish between causal and selectivity effects associated with the receipt of partial benefits. The results suggest that partial unemployment associated with short full-time jobs facilitates transitions to regular employment. Also part-time working on partial benefits may help men (but not women) in finding a regular job afterwards.     

European financial market dependence: An industry analysis

This paper uses a copula model to investigate the degree and determinants of European market dependence across 10 industries in 12 Euro zone and 8 non-Euro zone stock markets during the period 1992–2011. Most of the industries in Euro countries show a dependence increase with the Euro-area after the introduction of the Euro. The effects are strongest in countries with larger market capitalization and in the Financials, Industrials, Consumer Goods, Utilities, Technology and Telecommunications industries. Overall, the export intensity, interest rate sensitivity and competitiveness of an industry and the financial development and economic openness of a country are the most important determinants of changes in equity market dependence. The period around the Lehman collapse also shows higher equity market dependence between European countries, while the lower dependence increase during the period of the recent European sovereign debt crisis suggests that country-specific factors may matter more than before.